ASRP – 7/10/2017 – North Korean Nuclear Program – Domestic Security – Foreign Policy
-South Korean policy on North Korea; strategic patience. Complacent having gun to head for decades to avoid inevitable war.
-Seoul not likely flag to capture for North Korea. Invading NoKo army will push farther south to Pusan. Think 1975 NVA drive to Saigon.
-If war breaks out question is, how fast can coalition forces kill Kim and NoKo leadership to save S Korean lives?
-1950 Korean War was fought to a stalemate for good reason.
Seoul, South Korea – There are two, and only two, conclusions to the expanding North Korean nuclear weapons threat.
One, the North develops nuclear weapons delivery capability and, instead of blackmailing the region with short-to-intermediate range conventional missiles, threatens humanity with hydrogen bombs.
Threats and extortion, or “checkbook diplomacy” as the extorted prefer to call it, have been a North Korean foreign policy platform for 60 years and will ramp up with a deliverable nuclear arsenal at hand.
Okay. What’s the bad news?
Option two is WAR: North Korea forcibly disarmed and overthrown by South Korean, US, and coalition forces.
War between North and South Korea could cost hundreds and thousands of lives in the largest conventional military operation since the Pacific campaign of WWII.
“If this goes to a military solution, it’s going to be tragic on an unbelievable scale.” -SecDef James Mattis
Why only two outcomes?
Fat Baby is not going to abdicate rule, set free his people, and unite North and South Korea because the Trump Administration threatens him.
Dear Leader, remember, feeds relatives to starving dogs and had his brother assassinated on foreign soil.
The world’s only obese North Korean is, therefore, dead serious about holding onto power and will torch his house, and people, to prove it.
Speaking of people, did we mention Kim has 25 million brainwashed citizen fanatics who, upon believing their North Korean paradise threatened, will fight to the last infant?
Let’s just take him out!
Least we forget Un is protected by a paranoid totalitarian nation state, not hanging out in some some isolated Abbottabad compound waiting to see how many rounds ‘Rob O’Neill’ can drill through his sinus cavity.
This makes capturing or killing Kim a hard sell to officials with discretion over operations that would cancel Dear Leader’s existence. (Ask yourself the commercial airspace designation for Pyongyang.)
It’s this, or that.
Either North Korea is allowed to keep its nuke program, and use it however deemed necessary, or have it taken by force. That, regardless of what diplomatic BS comes out of anyone from any government on the planet, is the binary choice.
Unlike 1953, moreover, a war with 21st century North Korea will not result in a stalemate along the 39th Parallel. It will end with significant loss of life and potential use of nukes, by the US to stop the invasion of the South and shelling of Seoul, or, in the case of a nuke delivery-capable North Korea, the world’s first nuclear exchange.
Yes, the whole Taliban/Al-Qaeda thing does seem a bit small in comparison. After all the US government can ban and block dangerous people from low IQ terror states (not that it does), but preventing a North Korean ICBM from illegally entering the country is significantly more difficult.